567
567
Mar 7, 2013
03/13
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all this uncertainty and don't know what they do around the where the regulatory environment is going. the wiggle room is gone. there's not a lot of wiggle room for excuses in terms of what you do with cash because the activist investors are coming out because they want you to move that cash and pay it to share holders. >> not lost on them that you can do something better with them and one of the things you can do is give it to me. give it back to the shareholders, so carl icahn, the latest example, amasses a 100 million share 600% and now the second largest shareholder in dell behind, guess who, michael dell, and he says they need that dividend. they need a special dividend and you need a higher price. >> look at a company like ibm which by the way gives 100% of its free cash flow to shareholders. ibm is not growing very much. revenue growth of 2%. >> a pretty mature company. >> but it's still growing. >> but it's growing and it's giving back 100% of its free cash flow to shareholders. no wonder the stock has been a winner for so many years. >> how many activist investors are they fi
all this uncertainty and don't know what they do around the where the regulatory environment is going. the wiggle room is gone. there's not a lot of wiggle room for excuses in terms of what you do with cash because the activist investors are coming out because they want you to move that cash and pay it to share holders. >> not lost on them that you can do something better with them and one of the things you can do is give it to me. give it back to the shareholders, so carl icahn, the...
581
581
Mar 6, 2013
03/13
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it's created an environment with low natural gas prices where manufacturers are now talking about rebuilding those plant sights on the gulf coast and in the united states, you know, sites in manufacturing that we haven't talked about in 30 years this this country and that's what this opportunity that shale gas is called. >> because america is rich in shale, right? >> well, it certainly is. when you think about all the different opportunities in ohio and pennsylvania and what we're doing in colorado, so it is changing the landscape around where these opportunities reside. it's economic development for the states, for the local communities. it's driving tremendous changes. go to north dakota and see what's happening up there in this state. what we're doeg doing here in texas and what's happening in colorado and in colorado. it is changing the landscape and changing it for the better helping the economy goes. these are great jobs with good benefits in this industry. >> finally, sir, when would be a reasonable time frame to expect margin expansion? >> well, we'll start seeing that. we'll start s
it's created an environment with low natural gas prices where manufacturers are now talking about rebuilding those plant sights on the gulf coast and in the united states, you know, sites in manufacturing that we haven't talked about in 30 years this this country and that's what this opportunity that shale gas is called. >> because america is rich in shale, right? >> well, it certainly is. when you think about all the different opportunities in ohio and pennsylvania and what we're...
153
153
Mar 5, 2013
03/13
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it's a sluggish economic environment, and so ceos are being very careful with expenses. that's why margins are at record highs, but it's very hard to own a risk-free asset right now, and the fed and the european central bank have taken extreme tail risk off the table, so -- >> and the japanese central bank. >> and the japanese central bank, and so as a result people really don't have a lot of choice. they need to edge back into the market. >> that's the monetary policy factor, the fact that there aren't any choices, but you said earnings are looking better. do you think this continues? >> yeah. i think earnings will continue to grind up. the only thing is that at 1540, that's a 14 times multiple on expected, for the s&p for this year of $110. the big debate is what's the right pe, what's the right price earnings issue for this market, and i think for the next few years because of u.s. government and western government de-leveraging, we'll have pretty slug sluggish gmp growth and that's the big question. with bottom line earnings justify a 14 to 15 times multiple and that
it's a sluggish economic environment, and so ceos are being very careful with expenses. that's why margins are at record highs, but it's very hard to own a risk-free asset right now, and the fed and the european central bank have taken extreme tail risk off the table, so -- >> and the japanese central bank. >> and the japanese central bank, and so as a result people really don't have a lot of choice. they need to edge back into the market. >> that's the monetary policy factor,...
576
576
Mar 4, 2013
03/13
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we're cautious about japan just because of the environment particularly in this. >> i know you like our market here in the market. what about the japanese market? >> i like the japanese market. i think it's an untold story. it's a gateway to asia. so much is going to happen in japan over the next three to seven years that people are going to be dumbfounded. they've had so many negatives over the last 20 years that you can count them. you can't count them on your hands, but essentially things have changed. corporations are in great shape. it's a great story probably for another time. >> dani, what's he got wrong here? >> i just think, again, it could happen once again that japan could fall on its face. there's not been a case for japan in 20 years. so we'd like to see that start to overcome itself before we take action in japan. >> keith bliss, what's the catalyst you're looking for in this market that would send it lower, do you think? >> there's anything that could happen. we're just waiting for that match to light the fuse. you saw it last monday with the italian elections where we ha
we're cautious about japan just because of the environment particularly in this. >> i know you like our market here in the market. what about the japanese market? >> i like the japanese market. i think it's an untold story. it's a gateway to asia. so much is going to happen in japan over the next three to seven years that people are going to be dumbfounded. they've had so many negatives over the last 20 years that you can count them. you can't count them on your hands, but...
138
138
Mar 8, 2013
03/13
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i don't think our regulatory policy has been particularly productive in terms of helping the environment, helping grow the economy, and my sense is it probably has been negative in terms of investment by business. >> what about the sequester? what kind of an impact would these government spending cuts coming, what kind of an impact on jobs will that have on later on in the year in. >> minimal. first of all, it's a relative small number if you look at size of the sequester. it's smeller than the typical growth in the budget. if you go back a year or two, we grew the budget by 150 billion to 200 billion and talking about cutting somewhere in the neighborhood of 250 billion in the next ten month and 85 billion overall. small numbers relative to the tote a. i'm not a big believer in the effects of changes in expenditure on government growth. did it when i was in the government, and to be honest i don't think that the policy was particularly successful as we look back on it, and i don't think that the ones that president obama enacted in the early part of his term have been particularly succe
i don't think our regulatory policy has been particularly productive in terms of helping the environment, helping grow the economy, and my sense is it probably has been negative in terms of investment by business. >> what about the sequester? what kind of an impact would these government spending cuts coming, what kind of an impact on jobs will that have on later on in the year in. >> minimal. first of all, it's a relative small number if you look at size of the sequester. it's...
144
144
Mar 8, 2013
03/13
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the environment you're in is a very positive one. i'll turn bearish when interest rates start to move up dramatically and whether when there's a lot of froth in the economy. there isn't today. we're seeing a very -- >> i agree with you rob -- i agree with you rob with one major exception and that is that i believe most of the listeners would say inflation is way above what the government says it is if they have children in school, if they eat food and have gasoline in their cars and that means we're actually still in recession and people would be very unwise in taking hunk risks which they are not told b.for example,th dow jones record high, it would have to go up another 10% to equal its true record, and that's just taking a 2% inflation rate. what about if it was 6% inflation? >> john, when i first got in this business about 30 years identifying talked with john templeton, and he told me the reason you own stocks is because of inflation, so i agree that you need to be wary of inflation, but stocks are the solution to the inflation
the environment you're in is a very positive one. i'll turn bearish when interest rates start to move up dramatically and whether when there's a lot of froth in the economy. there isn't today. we're seeing a very -- >> i agree with you rob -- i agree with you rob with one major exception and that is that i believe most of the listeners would say inflation is way above what the government says it is if they have children in school, if they eat food and have gasoline in their cars and that...
133
133
Mar 5, 2013
03/13
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have you this perverse environment. the job creators, the real ones who create future prosperity, are having a hard time, uncertain time in getting credit. not what you want. it's like rent control for housing. >> but federal reserve vice chairman janet yellin says she sees no reason for the fed to reign in the stimulus, the risks of not being not aggressive enough outweigh the risks. when you hurt the patient, hurt it more. if the patient is sick, bleed it more. rent control, very good for luxury housing and poor market for people of lower middle class people getting housing. >> the markets have not flinched given -- even the dysfunction in washington. keeps going higher. sequester deadline came and went and same thing with the fiscal cliff at the end of the year. what gives? >> what gives is the extraordinary vitality of the american economy despite all the abuses in washington and compared to what you see in japan, compared to what you see in western -- most of western europe, we're in relatively good shape, but even
have you this perverse environment. the job creators, the real ones who create future prosperity, are having a hard time, uncertain time in getting credit. not what you want. it's like rent control for housing. >> but federal reserve vice chairman janet yellin says she sees no reason for the fed to reign in the stimulus, the risks of not being not aggressive enough outweigh the risks. when you hurt the patient, hurt it more. if the patient is sick, bleed it more. rent control, very good...
71
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most of them gaining ground on the competition that is being hurt in this environment. liz: i like to ask how do you pick them? what is your strategy for picking stocks in region that might be a little touch and go? >> a top-down view of saying when do you want to be there? we think europe is in the position where the u.s. was a year or two ago when things looked like they were never going to get any better. but we think they will. liz: you talk about increasing earnings? you look at leadership for the quality of the company and what they make? >> we look at the quality, the leadership, and the things that are going to have improving earnings. it is not a simple one step answer, but basically trying to find the good companies is the strategy we have and in many ways good companies and some of the troubled country's that are exposed to more than their home country so they're in good shape. liz: that is a perfect segue to their first pick which is one of the troubled countries which is italy. why do you like this company? >> two reason. they do a great job, they added dom
most of them gaining ground on the competition that is being hurt in this environment. liz: i like to ask how do you pick them? what is your strategy for picking stocks in region that might be a little touch and go? >> a top-down view of saying when do you want to be there? we think europe is in the position where the u.s. was a year or two ago when things looked like they were never going to get any better. but we think they will. liz: you talk about increasing earnings? you look at...
121
121
Mar 7, 2013
03/13
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you know, we're in a modest growth, modest inflation environment. all of the data we're seeing is confirming that. i think tomorrow's number, you know, if we see 150, i mean, that's not the greatest number. you need 125,000 jobs just to kind of break even with the new entrants into the labor market every month, but it's going to be a number that says, hey, we're seeing slow improvement in a slow economy. >> i guess my question really is has this market gotten ahead of itself, and is 150,000 jobs created in the last month enough to keep this momentum going, or do you think this is sort of -- puts a dent in what we've been seeing? >> good question, maria. i think that we would love to see it come back a little bit. everybody would love to buy at cheaper prices. you won't get much cheaper from here now that economic statistics are starting to get better. >> did you have something? >> i think we're a little bit ahead of ourselves, too. i think really, but you can't argue because, you know, we've got the fed xlooit completely at market's back, and now wh
you know, we're in a modest growth, modest inflation environment. all of the data we're seeing is confirming that. i think tomorrow's number, you know, if we see 150, i mean, that's not the greatest number. you need 125,000 jobs just to kind of break even with the new entrants into the labor market every month, but it's going to be a number that says, hey, we're seeing slow improvement in a slow economy. >> i guess my question really is has this market gotten ahead of itself, and is...